NFL Week 1: Games to Watch

The NFL season officially kicked off Thursday night with the Saints and Packers at Lambeau Field; it was a great game to start the 2011 season. But the real plum of the weekend will be the jam-packed Sunday with NFL games from rail to rail. We’ve been waiting for it for months, wading through piles of garbage from collective bargaining to holdouts to player arrests. It’s time for football!

Here’s a look at a few of this weekend’s biggest games.

Steelers @ Ravens – This contest is always a slugfest, and this game will be no different. As AFC North division rivals, these two tough teams play twice every season and the battles are fierce. It’s unusual for them to start the season with this game, but it’s a treat for us fans. Pittsburgh has won 10 of the last 18 games, but the team has only scored seven more points than Baltimore. That’s how close these teams are. The Steelers take it on the road.

Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 16

Eagles @ Rams – Philadelphia comes in with the “Dream Team” moniker from the national media because of all the skill position players on their roster – Vick D Jax, Maclin, McCoy, Asomugha, DR-C, etc. However, they look pretty soft up the middle, playing rookies or first-year starters at key positions like center, middle linebacker and safety. The Rams look dramatically better this season, executing with sharpness in the pre-season. I’d love to pick the Rams, but Philly has too much talent to be overcome by a young, up-and-coming team.

Philadelphia 27, St. Louis 24

Lions @ Buccaneers – Tampa Bay surprised a lot of people last year, finishing 10-6 and just narrowly missing the playoffs with an incredibly young and inexperienced team. Detroit is a sexy pick to make this year’s playoffs but have a tough division to navigate. If they are going to meet expectations, games like this against a solid opponent are ones they have to take care of. Stafford and Suh lead the charge, and the Lions take it on the road.

Detroit 21, Tampa Bay 17

Indianapolis @ Houston – If Gary Kubiak is ever going to save his job as Texans coach, this is the year. Peyton Manning is finally out of his way with the neck injury, and the rest of the division is pretty weak. Houston has the offensive weapons (they always have), but now the defense has to step up. If Wade Philips can turn it around with the 3-4 like he has in other places, the Texans will win the division. This is a must-win game for them … and they will.

Houston 31, Indy 24

And I have the Chiefs beating the Bills at home in close one. Jamaal Charles running the ball is the difference.  Kansas City 24, Buffalo 20

Enjoy the weekend, NFL fans. Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

St. Louis Success: Previewing the 2011 Rams

Last week in this space, I shared predictions for the winners in each division across the NFL. So you know generally what I think the Chiefs and Rams are going to do this season. But since many of you (as well as me) are big fans of one or both teams, I decided to dedicate an additional blog this week to break down some details for each team’s season. I did the Chiefs yesterday (9/6) and am detailing the Rams today (9/7).

For professional football fans in Missouri, 2011 was a breakout year. Over the course of the past three seasons (2007-’09), St. Louis and Kansas City combined to go an incredibly dreadful 16-80; the teams beat that three-year win total with 17 wins last year. So saying it was a true turnaround year is a massive understatement. The Chiefs won the AFC West title and the Rams came within a breath of winning the NFC West. Significant Show-Me progress for each franchise. Both teams have serious upside and I see bigger things coming soon. It’s an exciting time. So let’s get to the details.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Key Additions: S Quintin Mikell, OG Harvey Dahl, RB Cadillac Williams, WR Mike Sims-Walker, LB Ben Leber, LB Brady Poppinga, RB Jerrious Norwood, DT Robert Quinn (rookie), Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels

Recipe for Success: In a word (well, OK, two words), Sam Bradford. The first-year quarterback had a solid if unspectacular 2010 campaign, attempting a rookie-record 590 passes. He completed 60 percent of them, throwing 18 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. Filling in the roster with better offensive weapons is key to the Rams continued progress. The font office did a good job of getting some complementary pieces to fill out the receiving corps and backup running backs; now they have to produce. Coach Steve Spagnuolo’s defense will continue to mature and get after the opposing quarterback. Adding LBs Leber and Poppinga to steady MLB James Laurinaitis will catapult the defense to significant improvement. As in year’s past, the big question mark is the secondary.

Schedule Breakdown: In addition home-and-home series within the NFC West, the division plays the NFC East and the AFC North as part of the normal NFL schedule rotation. The Rams host the Eagles, Ravens, Redskins and Bengals at the Ed (Jones Dome); and have to travel to New York (Giants), Dallas, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Plus games against fellow second-place finishers New Orleans at home and at Green Bay. The team faces a tough schedule right out of the gate, facing the Eagles, Giants, Ravens and Packer in the first six weeks. It is a much tougher schedule that last year and the team could start out as bad as 2-4, but the back half of the schedule looks almost sweepable.

Prediction: The Rams looked sharp this pre-season, winning all four games with relative ease. I know they mean nothing, but it shows momentum and that’s important for a young, improving team. I see the Rams rolling through the weak NFC West, winning it and going to the playoffs with a record of 8-8.

As always, I’d love to hear from you. How do you think the Rams will do? Am I being to realistic, too pessimistic? Come on, sound off.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Kansas City Comeback: Previewing the 2011 Chiefs

Last week in this space, I shared predictions for the winners in each division across the NFL. So you know generally what I think the Chiefs and Rams are going to do this season. But since many of you (as well as me) are big fans of one or both teams, I decided to dedicate an additional blog this week to break down some details for each team’s season. I’ll do the Chiefs today (9/6) and the Rams tomorrow (9/7).

For professional football fans in Missouri, 2011 was a breakout year. Over the course of the past three seasons (2007-’09), St. Louis and Kansas City combined to go an painfully dreadful 16-80; the teams beat that three-year win total with 17 wins last year. So saying it was a true turnaround year is a massive understatement. The Chiefs won the AFC West title and the Rams came within a breath of winning the NFC West. Significant Show-Me progress for each franchise. Both teams have serious upside, and I see bigger things coming soon. It’s an exciting time. So let’s get to the details.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Key Additions: WR Steve Breaston, NT Kelly Gregg, WR Jonathan Baldwin (rookie), OL Jared Gaither, FB LeRon McClain, QB Coach Jim Zorn

Recipe for Success: Kansas City had the league’s No. 1 rushing offense in 2010, averaging more than 164 yards per game. Jamaal Charles is one of the NFL’s premier rushers with the ability to break a big play every time he touches the ball. The running game has to continue AND QB Matt Cassel needs to repeat his Pro Bowl-caliber play to balance the offense. Continued improvement is required on the defensive side of the ball, particularly against the run. KC’s secondary is solid, but the linebacking corps play remains a question mark. And the offensive and defensive lines need to solidify; high draft picks need to start producing like, well, high draft picks.

Schedule Breakdown: In addition home-and-home series within the AFC West, the division plays the NFC North and the AFC East as part of the normal NFL schedule rotation. The Chiefs host the Bills, Vikings, Dolphins and Packers at Arrowhead; and have to travel to Detroit, New England, Chicago and New York (Jets) for tough road games. Plus games against fellow division winners Pittsburgh at home and at Indianapolis. The Chiefs face a particularly tough stretch beginning in late November when they face New England on the road on Monday night, then host the Steelers the next Sunday night, followed by games at the Bears, at the Jets and home for the Packers. Geez. It is a much tougher schedule that last year.

Prediction: Even with my fan goggles on, the best I can predict is 9-7, and unfortunately out of the playoffs. The winless and, quite frankly, lifeless pre-season doesn’t help foster any optimism. The Chiefs will improve as a team, but the record won’t show it.

In tomorrow’s post, we will break down the Rams.

As always, I’d love to hear from you. How do you think the Chiefs will do? Am I being to realistic, too pessimistic? Come on, sound off.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

NFL Power Rankings: Pre-Season Edition

The NFL Regular Season starts this Thursday with the Kick-off game in Green Bay featuring the Saints and the Packers. It’s a tough test right out of the gate for the reigning Super Bowl champions as New Orleans has reloaded on defense and their high-powered offense will be as good as ever. It’s a marquee match-up featuring two of the NFC’s power teams and two of the league’s best quarterbacks.

With the season starting this week, I wanted to go on record with a power ranking list of all 32 NFL teams. This list is put together based on who I think could beat the teams listed below them on a regular basis … not on star power, not on past results. Who could beat who, in my opinion. Here goes …

NFL POWER RANKINGS (as of Sept. 4)

1.       Green Bay – The Super Bowl champs are No. 1 until somebody beats them.

2.       New England – The Hoodie adds Ocho and Albert. AFC Superpower remains strong.

3.       Philadelphia – The Dream Team needs solid line play and linebackers to step up.

4.       New Orleans – Brees is still one of the best, and the D has been addressed.

5.       Pittsburgh – Big Ben, Troy and James are back. Watch out AFC.

6.       New York Jets – Rex’s mouth never stops. The O is key to repeating.

7.       Atlanta – Julio Jones adds to the Falcons’ offensive firepower.

8.       San Diego – If the Chargers get the special teams figured out, watch out.

9.       Baltimore – The defense is aging but still tough. Flacco continues to develop.

10.   Houston – If Wade fixes the defense, the Texans will finally make the playoffs.

11.   Indianapolis – Peyton’s neck issue pushes them down the list.

12.   Dallas – Romo is back; the offensive line and secondary will be key to improvement.

13.   Kansas City – Charles is ready to break out, and the D is improving.

14.   St. Louis – 4-0 pre-season has this team believing; Rams likely win the NFC West.

15.   Chicago – Cutler has to rebound in order to keep up with division foes.

16.   New York Giants – G-Men are battling the injury bug. Eli has to cut the interceptions.

17.   Detroit – If Stafford stays healthy and the D fulfills the hype, a wildcard is probable.

18.   Tampa Bay – A young, talented team takes a mini-step back in a tough division.

19.   Oakland – Raiders need to win games outside the division this year.

20.   Arizona – Kolb is a major upgrade, but the defense has big holes.

21.   Cleveland – Colt McCoy is the real deal and Hillis repeats, but weapons are needed.

22.   Tennessee – CJ2K returns to form after a holdout, but the defense continues to slip.

23.   Buffalo – Gailey gets the offense rolling, but a tough division keeps them down.

24.   Minnesota – McNabb is better, but he's not enough to overcome major defections.

25.   San Francisco – Love Harbaugh and Willis, but they may be in the Luck sweepstakes.

26.   Seattle – For the life of me, I cannot figure out the Tavaris Jackson signing.

27.   Miami – Henne gets one more chance. Brandon Marshall hopes he delivers.

28.   Jacksonville – Gabbert will be under center by Week 8. See ya, Jack Del Rio.

29.   Washington – Shanahan’s Last Stand in DC … Beck will not be enough to save him.

30.   Carolina – Cam struggles with big-league coverage; the D keeps them in games.

31.   Denver – Orton survives Tebow-mania, but the defense cannot improve fast enough.

32.   Cincinnati – Mike Brown strikes again. The Bungles return.

Here are ESPN's pre-season rankings, too.

I’d love to see your rankings. Tell me where and why my list is all messed up.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve