Predicting the 2016 NFL Playoff Field

Predicting the 2016 NFL Playoff Field

Well, friends ... it's been a while since you've seen anything new on the 'ole MTSS blog, say like 18 months. We are back just like football, and it is time to get after some playoff predictions.

It’s that time of the year when all the so-called national experts and football pundits take their shot at predicting the field of NFL playoff teams for the upcoming season. It’s a pretty mixed bag, with most of the ”predictions sure to go wrong” as some have labeled it. That’s pretty much the case here, too.

So with all the know-it-alls giving it a shot here in the opening days of the pre-season, I thought I’d throw my hat into the ring. I spend a lot of brainpower thinking about it anyway, so I just as well share it  and make a jerk out of myself like everybody else.

*Division winners

~Wildcard teams

AFC North – Pittsburgh*, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland

            The Steelers finally ride their offense to the post-season despite the Bell suspension.

AFC South – Houston,* Indianapolis~, Jacksonville, Tennessee

Texans are too talented to not take advantage of a weak division; Colts rebound.

AFC East – New England*, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami

Despite injuries and suspensions, the Pats ride to another division title.

AFC West – Kansas City*, Oakland~, Denver, San Diego

The Chiefs ACL crew returns with a vengeance; Raiders resurgence gets the playoff berth.

AFC playoff teams – Steelers, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Chiefs, Raiders

NFC North – Green Bay*, Minnesota~, Chicago, Detroit

Packers rebound from a down year to retake the division;  Vikes squeak into playoffs.

NFC South – Carolina*, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay

The Panthers take a step back but still rule the weak NFC South easily.

NFC East – Dallas*, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia

A healthy Romo/Dez combo plus a dynamic rookie at RB equals big Ws in Dallas.

NFC West – Arizona*, Seattle~, San Francisco, St. Louis

Arians leads the Cards to a division title and Seattle is right there, too.

NFC playoff teams – ­Packers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys, Cardinals, Seahawks

 

Super Bowl prediction: Kansas City v Seattle

The Chiefs ride their ball-hawking defense and opportunistic offense into the playoffs and run the table in the AFC. Seattle plays its typical ground and pound, smashmouth style, pounding the NFC to powder. These mirror image teams face off for the Lombardi with the hardware returning to KC after a 47-year absence and giving Head Coach Andy Reid his first ring.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Come on … give it a shot. Who do you think will be the surprise and potential flop teams this season?

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Miller Mock 1.0

This is the week. T-minus four days and counting until the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night. I’ll be heading to Kansas City with my son and fellow Chiefs fanatic, Casey Miller, to watch at the Chiefs Official Draft Party. It’s an event for Season Ticket Holders only. Yeah, that’s right. Can’t wait … 

As I haven’t had the time to do multiple mock drafts this year, Version 1.0 will be the first and the last one. Who knows what will really happen … (actually only one and Jesus isn’t talking). Take a look, and let me know what you think. 

1. Tampa Bay – Jameis Winston, QB Florida State -- loads of off-field issues and on-field potential
2. Tennessee (or whoever ends up in this spot) – Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon -- get the sense many teams are underselling how much they like him; natural leader
3. Jacksonville – Leonard Williams, DL USC -- just might be the best all-around talent in the draft
4. Oakland – Amari Cooper, WR Alabama -- polished route runner and pass catcher; hate to see him end up with the Raiders
5. Washington – Dante Fowler, OLB Florida -- pundits have been raving about his upside; could go anywhere from 3 to 23
6. New York Jets – Bud Dupree, OLB Kentucky -- skyrocketing up the mock draft boards; Jets could go WR here very easily
7. Chicago – Kevin White, WR West Virginia -- only one year of production, but the Bears will run to the podium if he is available
8. Atlanta – Vic Beasley, OLB Clemson -- least talked about of the edge rushers; quietly productive
9. New York Giants – Brandon Scherff, OL Iowa -- consistently mocked to the G-Men; will likely start at guard and then develop into tackle
10. St. Louis – Andrus Peat, OL Stanford -- not really sure what Rams will do here; OL is a need but so is WR
11. Minnesota – DeVante Parker, WR Louisville -- reuniting Teddy B with his college teammate
12. Cleveland – Danny Shelton, NT Washington -- Browns need help all over the field; building the D line is a good place to start
13. New Orleans – Randy Gregory, OLB Nebraska -- not sure if the Big Easy is a great place for Gregory, but he shouldn't be bored
14. Miami – La’el Collins, OL LSU -- Dolphins are still rebuilding the O line; likely starter at guard
15. San Francisco – Arik Armstead, DL Oregon -- nice start to rebuilding the Niners' dominant D
16. Houston – Breshad Perriman, WR Central Florida -- O'Brien replaces Andre with this burner
17. San Diego – D.J. Humphries, OL Florida -- Chargers continue to shore up the O line
18. Kansas City – Eric Kendricks, ILB UCLA -- with no glaring holes, Chiefs can go multiple ways here; CB, WR and ILB are the most logical moves
19. Cleveland – Eddie Goldman, DT Florida State -- with two first-round picks, the Browns go O line and D line
20. Philadelphia – Trae Waynes, CB Michigan State -- the first corner off the board to the Iggles at 20 unless Chip goes crazy again
21. Cincinnati – Shane Ray, OLB Missouri -- the fall for Ray stops with Cincy; the foot injury scared people off
22. Pittsburgh – Marcus Peters, CB Washington -- with key secondary retirements this off-season, the Steelers need to reload the back end of the D
23. Detroit – Malcolm Brown, DT Texas -- beginning the process of replacing Suh and Fairley, Brown is a good start
24. Arizona –Todd Gurley, RB Georgia -- if the Cards strike out on the AP deal, drafting Gurley is a nice consolation prize
25. Carolina – Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Texas -- protecting Cam helps the passing game and the entire offense
26. Baltimore – Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota -- the draft's best TE option by far will help the Ravens in the middle of the field
27. Dallas – Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin -- Gordon may step in and start as a rookie behind the best O line in the league
28. Denver – Jake Fisher, OT Oregon -- free-agency defections mean Elway has to shore up the line
29. Indianapolis – Ereck Flowers, OT Miami -- Luck is great, but he can't block and throw the passes; Indy needs help here
30. Green Bay – Kevin Johnson, CB Wake Forrest -- as usual, Thompson stays pat and finds great value late in the round
31. New Orleans – Jalen Collins, CB LSU -- the Saints need back-end help, and Collins fits the scheme
32. New England – Landon Collins, S Alabama -- who really cares who they get? It's the Patriots for crying out loud. They'll be fine.

How does your mock look different from this?
Thanks for reading.
Steve

2013 Playoff Predictions

With the NFL season kicking off next week, I thought I'd throw out (or up depending on your opinion of my picks) some predictions on the playoff qualifiers come January. Every year, there are several new teams in the fold, and usually a worst-to-first Cinderella story ... I bet you have some idea of who I'll pick for that. 

Anyway, here we go. Shoot holes in these if you think you know better. 

AFC

• North: Bengals

• South: Texans

• East: Patriots

• West: Broncos

• Wildcards: Steelers, Chiefs

Comment: Really weak conference this year. I didn't intend on picking KC for this until I went through every team. Homer pick, yes. Totally blind, no. 

NFC

• North: Packers

• South: Falcons

• East: Cowboys

• West: 49ers

• Wildcards: Seahawks, Rams

Comment: The top four teams in the entire league appear to be in the NFC. Brutal really. Rams would be division winners in any other spot. 

Super Bowl Pick -- Falcons over Bengals. Crazy uniforms galore. Finally, a ring for Tony G. and SJ39. 

Thanks for reading. 

Steve

Black Monday Update

Well, it’s midnight-thirty and I can’t sleep. I’ve had a full day (yesterday now actually) of chasing news about Andy Reid becoming the new coach of the Kansas City Chiefs … or not maybe. The insiders are expecting it to be finalized later today (Friday); we’ll see.

As I thought about that, it struck me that we should revisit my blog from a month ago about coaches on the hot seat and see how accurate I was. I listed 10 warming seats. Let’s take another look at each one and see how I did.

Norv Turner, Chargers – He’s gone along with GM A.J. Smith, as expected. 1 for 1 so far.

Andy Reid, Eagles – As mentioned above, he’s in line for the Chiefs job, so he obviously was fired by Philadelphia. 2 for 2.

Romeo Crennel, Chiefs – Winning two games all season will do that. It was so bad that KC Owner Clark Hunt apologized to the fans. Crennel out; GM Scott Pioli may not be far behind. 3 for 3.

Ron Rivera, Panthers – GM Marty Hurney was fired but the Panthers’ late season run has saved Rivera so far. He’s probably safe. My first miss.

Jason Garrett, Cowboys – Owner Jerry Jones is NOT HAPPY with the ‘boys 8-8 finish. There will be changes, but I think Garrett is safe for one more year. Now I’m 3 for 5.

Rex Ryan, Jets – GM Mike Tannebaum got the ax, but Rex is safe. I’d expect OC Tony Sporano to get the boot, too. Their offense was pathetic.

Chan Gailey, Bills – After three underachieving season, Gailey is done in Buffalo. I expect him to catch on as an OC somewhere. That’s now 4 for 7.

Pat Shurmur, Browns – The Browns were improved, but new owner Jimmy Haslam is cleaning house and wants his own guys. President Mike Holmgrem and GM Tom Heckert are gone, too. 5 for 8.

Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals – Going from 4-0 to 5-11 and having the worst QB situation in the entire league wasn’t good enough. Coach Whiz is out, but he’ll likely get another head job, maybe Buffalo. I’m now 6 for 9.

Mike Mularkey, Jaguars – He’s in place for now, but this may change. I expected Shad Khan to can him and bring in his own guy, and he still may do that. But it’s a miss for now. 6 for 10.

The one I missed … is Lovie Smith of the Bears. They won 10 games but didn’t make the playoffs because the Packers couldn’t beat the Vikings. That’s a tough one. He’ll land another gig, for sure.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Top 10 NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat

Well, we’ve come to that time in the NFL season. It’s Week 13, and the playoff picture is coming into focus. The teams in the hunt are clear. And the teams simply playing out the string are painfully evident.

Here’s a list of coaches likely to be out of a job soon. Some will be put out to pasture at the end of the season, some maybe sooner.

Norv Turner, Chargers – This one is past due. Norv has been turning great talent into mediocre records for years in San Diego. He and A.J. Smith are both gone.

Andy Reid, Eagles – Owner Jeffrey Lurie said before the season that a repeat of last year’s 8-8 record wasn’t good enough. I don’t see any way Philly makes it back to .500. But Andy won’t be out of work for long.

Romeo Crennel, Chiefs – There’s no two ways about it. Having one win through 12 weeks will get you fired. Question is, will GM Scott Pioli get to choose the new HC or will he also be out of work?

Ron Rivera, Panthers – GM Marty Hurney is already gone. Can his hand-picked coach Ron Rivera, only in his second season in Carolina, be far behind? He’s likely gone as a new GM will want his own guy.

Jason Garrett, Cowboys – I’m not sure on this one. Jerry says he loves him, but Jerry hates losing more than he loves anything.

Rex Ryan, Jets – This call will probably be made by Jets Owner Woody Johnson. New York loves Rex, but will his two consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance get him one more year to prove it. He’s probably coming back.

Chan Gailey, Bills – He’s a good offensive coordinator, but it is obvious that this train is only going in circles. Gailey is likely let go.

Pat Shurmur, Browns – The Browns have been playing tough, improved football the past few weeks. But new owner Jimmy Haslam may have plans to install his coach. I expect to see Shurmur follow Mike Holmgren out the door.

Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals – The Cards’ Superbowl appearance a couple season ago bought him some time and patience. This team seems to be headed in the wrong direction. It needs a good QB. And maybe a new coach.

Mike Mularkey, Jaguars – Nice guy. Bad head coach. The skiddish nature of Blaine Gabbert hasn’t helped. Doubt to see him back in Jax next season.

So who am I missing? Where do I have the order all messed up? Sound off; give me your list.

Thanks for reading.

Steve

 

It’s a Missouri versus Georgia Weekend

It’s a HUGE football weekend across the entire country this weekend, but especially here in the state of Missouri. There are big games in college football (Florida at Texas A&M, for example) and in the NFL (Niners at Packers and Pittsburgh at Denver come to mind), but none are bigger than what the Mizzou Tigers and Kansas City Chiefs have on the line. Both games will set the tone for these squads’ seasons.

 

Let’s take a look at each game and throw out a not-so-expert prediction on the outcomes.

GEORGIA @ MIZZOU

It’s hard to sit here and say the second game of the season is this big of a game, but everybody is doing it. This is Missouri’s first game in the SEC, and it is against probably the best team in the East division. If Ole Mizzou hopes to turn in a good campaign in its inaugural season in the nation’s best football conference, they need to come out strong in this home opener. The energy will be high, the players will be pumped, the crowd will be frenetic … and the play will be fast. This game is basically Mizzou’s coming out party. Let’s see what kind of a statement they make to the SEC.

Prediction: Home field makes the difference as the Tigers win a close one, 30-27.

FALCONS @ CHIEFS

Atlanta is one of the hot picks to make the SuperBowl this season, and most experts don’t know what to make of Kansas City. The Falcons are loaded with offensive weapons; quarterback Matt Ryan continues to mature and he has lots of options including the blossoming Julio Jones at wide receiver. The Chiefs have one of the youngest rosters in the league, and are welcoming back RB Jamaal Charles, S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki back from season-ending knee injuries. They have the talent. Question is, can new Head Coach Romeo Crennel put it all together and get them to perform consistently. Arrowhead will be rocking (so pumped that I will be there). It will be a stiff test. Peter King called it the game of the week.

Prediction: Some key injuries on KC’s defense provide Atlanta with scoring opportunities. Atlanta wins it, 27-23.

As always, I’d love to hear your take on games. Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

NFL Power Rankings – Week 1

The NFL season finally kicks off on Wednesday night with the Cowboys taking on the Giants in New York. And then the rest of the league follows suit on Sunday and Monday with a full slate of games. Crazed, football-starved fans have been getting by on projections and analysis and fantasy drafts, but now the real thing begins.

Here’s an update to my pre-season rankings for Week 1.

1. Green Bay – Top to bottom, still the best talent.
2. New England – Brady and Gronk will be hard to stop.
3. NY Giants – Defending champs have to be near the top.
4. Baltimore – Always play tough defense. Can Flacco and the O deliver?
5. Pittsburgh – Big Ben has Haley’s new offense and Wallace finally.
6. San Francisco – Not sure they can repeat 13-3 with Alex Smith.
7. Houston – Texans lost key pieces, but play in a weak division.
8. New Orleans – Despite everything, they’re still dangerous.
9. Detroit – Lots of firepower and off-field issues.
10.  Atlanta – Good team still trying to prove it is great.
11.  Philadelphia – Vick says dynasty. Let’s see it on the field.
12.  Chicago – Cutler. Forte. Marshall. And a good D.
13.  Dallas – Sooner or later, they have to live up to the hype … right?
14.  Kansas City – The ACL trio returns. Solid D. It’s all on Cassel.
15.  Buffalo – Great offseason, but can they compete in AFC East?
16.  Denver – Everybody love Peyton, but the team needs more tools.
17.  Cincinnati – Great young core. Insanely tough division.
18. San Diego – Promise big every year. It’s do-or-die time for the bosses.
19. Carolina – Big dreams in PantherLand after Cam’s rookie year.
20.  NY Jets – Rex’s weight loss and the team’s loss of wins will mirror.
21.  Tennessee – Steady team. Big decision on the QB.
22.  Seattle – Pete believes. No one else is sure. Pick a QB, please.
23.  Washington – RGIII has the town by the tail. But can he win?
24.  Arizona – Solid by not spectacular anywhere. Iffy at QB.
25.  Tampa Bay – Lots of moves to improve the roster. And a new coach.
26.  St. Louis – Fisher is the new sheriff in town. Sam has to rebound.
27.  Oakland – Reggie has some work to do in the post-Al era.
28.  Miami – Philbin takes over. Tannehill at QB. Long season ahead.
29.  Jacksonville – MJD finally reported. Gabbert has looked much improved.
30.  Cleveland – New owner. New QB. New RB. Big hill to climb.
31.  Indianapolis – His name is Luck, and he’ll need it this season.
32.  Minnesota – AP is still recovering. Is Ponder the guy?

Welcome back, football. We’ve missed you terribly.

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve