Predicting the 2016 NFL Playoff Field

Predicting the 2016 NFL Playoff Field

Well, friends ... it's been a while since you've seen anything new on the 'ole MTSS blog, say like 18 months. We are back just like football, and it is time to get after some playoff predictions.

It’s that time of the year when all the so-called national experts and football pundits take their shot at predicting the field of NFL playoff teams for the upcoming season. It’s a pretty mixed bag, with most of the ”predictions sure to go wrong” as some have labeled it. That’s pretty much the case here, too.

So with all the know-it-alls giving it a shot here in the opening days of the pre-season, I thought I’d throw my hat into the ring. I spend a lot of brainpower thinking about it anyway, so I just as well share it  and make a jerk out of myself like everybody else.

*Division winners

~Wildcard teams

AFC North – Pittsburgh*, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland

            The Steelers finally ride their offense to the post-season despite the Bell suspension.

AFC South – Houston,* Indianapolis~, Jacksonville, Tennessee

Texans are too talented to not take advantage of a weak division; Colts rebound.

AFC East – New England*, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami

Despite injuries and suspensions, the Pats ride to another division title.

AFC West – Kansas City*, Oakland~, Denver, San Diego

The Chiefs ACL crew returns with a vengeance; Raiders resurgence gets the playoff berth.

AFC playoff teams – Steelers, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Chiefs, Raiders

NFC North – Green Bay*, Minnesota~, Chicago, Detroit

Packers rebound from a down year to retake the division;  Vikes squeak into playoffs.

NFC South – Carolina*, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay

The Panthers take a step back but still rule the weak NFC South easily.

NFC East – Dallas*, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia

A healthy Romo/Dez combo plus a dynamic rookie at RB equals big Ws in Dallas.

NFC West – Arizona*, Seattle~, San Francisco, St. Louis

Arians leads the Cards to a division title and Seattle is right there, too.

NFC playoff teams – ­Packers, Vikings, Panthers, Cowboys, Cardinals, Seahawks

 

Super Bowl prediction: Kansas City v Seattle

The Chiefs ride their ball-hawking defense and opportunistic offense into the playoffs and run the table in the AFC. Seattle plays its typical ground and pound, smashmouth style, pounding the NFC to powder. These mirror image teams face off for the Lombardi with the hardware returning to KC after a 47-year absence and giving Head Coach Andy Reid his first ring.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Come on … give it a shot. Who do you think will be the surprise and potential flop teams this season?

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

2013 Playoff Predictions

With the NFL season kicking off next week, I thought I'd throw out (or up depending on your opinion of my picks) some predictions on the playoff qualifiers come January. Every year, there are several new teams in the fold, and usually a worst-to-first Cinderella story ... I bet you have some idea of who I'll pick for that. 

Anyway, here we go. Shoot holes in these if you think you know better. 

AFC

• North: Bengals

• South: Texans

• East: Patriots

• West: Broncos

• Wildcards: Steelers, Chiefs

Comment: Really weak conference this year. I didn't intend on picking KC for this until I went through every team. Homer pick, yes. Totally blind, no. 

NFC

• North: Packers

• South: Falcons

• East: Cowboys

• West: 49ers

• Wildcards: Seahawks, Rams

Comment: The top four teams in the entire league appear to be in the NFC. Brutal really. Rams would be division winners in any other spot. 

Super Bowl Pick -- Falcons over Bengals. Crazy uniforms galore. Finally, a ring for Tony G. and SJ39. 

Thanks for reading. 

Steve

Are the Chiefs Relevant?

As a follow-up to the Pro Football Talk feature over the past couple of days on the Kansas City Chiefs' Mount Rushmore, I decided to take a look at the performance history, decade by decade. The assertion on the show was that the Chiefs have not been relevant since the 1960s, so said Mike Florio.

Here's a quick look at the Chiefs have performed over the decades.


1960s

• Record: 87-48-5
• Winning Percentage: .639
• Equivalent Record: 10-6
• NOTE: The best decade with on Superbowl title and the best winning percentage.

1970s

• Record:60-79-5
• Winning Percentage: .434
• Equivalent Record: 7-9
• NOTE: This is the worst decade in franchise history. Zero playoff appearances.

1980s

• Record:66-84-2
• Winning Percentage: .441
• Equivalent Record:7-9

1990s

• Record:102-60
• Winning Percentage: .630
• Equivalent Record: 10-6

2000s

• Record:72-90
• Winning Percentage: .444
• Equivalent Record:7-9

2010s

• Record:19-29 (so far)
• Winning Percentage: .396
• Equivalent Record:6-10

Overall

• Record:404-388-12
• Winning Percentage: .510
• Equivalent Record:8-8

CONCLUSION:
So no matter how much it hurts, despite the great decades of Hank Stram and Marty Schottenheimer leading the team, we are fans of a .500 team over it's history. Don't get me wrong. I LOVE the Chiefs!! We have great history, incredible fans, an iconic and historic stadium, and an owner that created the AFL and named the Superbowl. But our record leaves something to be desired.

I say Dorsey, Reid and the boys begin changing that this season.

Here We Go!!

A New Era at Arrowhead

The End is in Sight

It was the worst of times; it was the worst of times. 2012 is the season that will long live in the brains of suffering Kansas City Chiefs fans for years to come. From just about every angle that you could possibly look at the recently completed football campaign, it was a complete and total disaster. Let’s take a look at just a few of the stats, shall we.

Points scored, allowed: 211, 425

Point differential: -215 (worst in the league)

Offensive Touchdowns: 17 (last in the league)

Total Offense: 32nd

Total Defense: 25^th

Record: 2-14 (last)

There were a few bright spots, but you had to look hard to see them through the clouds. Jamaal Charles came back with a vengeance from a knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He returned to form as one of the NFL’s top running backs, finishing with 1,509 yards. And the team ended up sending six players to the Pro Bowl, proving the roster was not void of quality players.

Off the field, things were just as bleak. Fans were forming new groups to lobby for then-General Manager Scott Pioli to be fired. Head Coach Romeo Crennel, as nice of a man as he is, did not have any answers … on the field or at press conferences. Linebacker Jovan Belcher killed his girlfriend and then committed suicide at the team’s practice facility. The Chiefs were in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. As painful as it is for fanatical football fans to admit, the conclusion of the final contest in Denver could not come soon enough.

The end of the one of the longest and most painful seasons in the history of the Chiefs mercifully came to an end on Dec. 30. Fans were fed up they wanted to see changes. And Clark Hunt did not disappoint.

A New Beginning

It was an incredibly eventful month for Clark Hunt, Chiefs’ chairman and CEO, following the end of the season. In three consecutive Mondays, he held press conferences announcing major changes for the organization. On Dec. 31, it was Crennel’s firing and adoption of significant structural changes. On Jan. 6, it was the hiring of Andy Reid as the team’s 13^th head coach. And finally, on Jan. 13, it was the hiring of John Dorsey as general manager; Pioli and the team had “parted ways” earlier in the month.

The 2012 season was marked with despair, negativity and pain for Chiefs fans, long considered one of the most loyal and passionate fanbases in the league. And in less than a month, bold moves by the new Mr. Hunt turned the off-season on its ear.

Rather than grousing and complaining, fan blogs and sports talk radio surrounding the Chiefs suddenly turned to optimism, hope and predictions of success for 2013. Somehow, we all came down with a case of amnesia and collectively decided to forget about the crushing defeats, the bumbling leadership and the inept quarterback play. With the flip of three bold switches by Clark Hunt, fans have returned to their loyal, positive and supportive ways.

The organization still has major decisions in front of it that will determine, to a large extent, the success we will see the team have on the field for the foreseeable future … Who to draft with the No. 1 pick? Whether to franchise LT Branden Albert, WR Dwayne Bowe, sign them to long-term contracts or let them walk? What to do with the QB situation (Cassel, Quinn, Stanzi) – do they all need to go? That is all in addition to preparing for the upcoming draft and free agency. Lots of decisions, but very little time.

Despite last season’s failures, it is an exciting time to be a Chiefs fan. I’m counting the days until the NFL Combine, the opening of free agency, the NFL Draft, mini camps, training camp … and of course, the pre-season and eventually the 2013 regular season.

It’s a new era in Chiefs football. Hang on folks. It’s going to be a wild ride.

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

Musings on the Pro Bowl, Super Bowl

It is always bittersweet for me to see the Super Bowl get big in the football window. Sweet because the biggest game of the year is only days away; bitter because that game marks the end of watching grown men smash each other for a few months … leaving only the NFL Combine, free agency and the Draft in April to look forward to. Ahh … the Super Bowl. How America loves ye.

But anyway, let’s move on to some random thoughts on the Pro Bowl and a preview/prediction for the Super Bowl.

Players Save the Pro Bowl

Commissioner Roger Goodell has done a lot of good for the NFL over the past few years. Many grouse about his heavy-handed suspension and fines, but I think overall the league is better for having him in the chair. Take the Pro Bowl for instance. Last year’s game was a disgrace; players barely tried. Roger threatened to eliminate the game. So what happened? It actually looked like a football game this year.

I typically root for the AFC, but generally don’t really care who wins the game. It’s one of the last two games for the season, so I will watch. The best part this year was watching the six Chiefs in the game. Pretty good (a record in fact) for a team with only two wins. It proves the talent is there. Hopefully the leadership is there now, too. This fan is already looking forward to next season with Andy Reid (Big Red) at the helm.

Super Bowl XLVII

RAVENS VS 49ERS

This game is also known as the HarBowl or Ray Lewis’ last dance or the battle of two unknown quarterbacks or the Revival of New Orleans. There are plenty of storylines to go around at this year’s NFL championship game, and most of us will be sick of hearing about most of them by kickoff on Sunday.

The one I like, and some of you may disagree, is the story of two brothers coaching against each other in the biggest game of their lives. Put yourself in their place. I want to win as bad as the next guy (OK, probably more) but knowing that your bro is going to be crushed at the very moment that you have one of the greatest moments of your life. That’s heavy. Mr. & Mrs. Harbaugh have to be torn. It’s the best of times, but it is also tough, I’m sure. Imagine being incredibly joyful for one son while consoling and heartbroken for the other. What an incredible situation God has placed in front of that family. They seem to be handling it with humility, grace and joy. Good for them.

On to the game … most of the official betting lines have the Niners favored by 3-4 points. By all accounts it should be a hard-hitting and close game. The teams (and coaches) mirror each other – tough defense, good running games, vertical passing, TEs heavily involved, strong special teams, emotional leaders across the board.

All that said, it’s going to come down to which defense can stop the opposing team’s biggest offensive threat. For the Ravens that is Flacco to Torrey Smith going deep. For the Niners, it’s Kaepernick and the read-option from the quarterback position. Atlanta poked holes in the San Francisco secondary, and I think Baltimore will, too. My prediction: Ravens 28, Niners 24. Good bye, Ray Lewis.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Predictions for the NFL's Final Four

The NFL's version of the Final Four is here with the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games coming up this Sunday. I love this time of the year as football titans beat each other up each in an attempt to get to the SuperBowl. But it's also bittersweet because it means the games are quickly coming to an end.

Some quick thoughts (and predictions) on the games.

NINERS @ FALCONS

It was nice to see Mike Smith, Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez finally get that elusive first playoff win last week against the Seahawks. Just barely. Despite a great home record over the past few years, I just don't think Atlanta has enough to overcome that tough 49er defense, and Kaepernick and Co. are clicking on offense, too. I'll be rooting for Tony G. and the birds, but my pick is for San Francisco to win it on the road.

RAVENS @ PATRIOTS

I call this the Hatred Bowl for me personally. Don't really like either of these teams at all. Belichick is a great coach, probably a football genius, but I just get tired of hearing about The Hoodie, Brady, The Patriot Way, etc. And I've never really been a fan of the Ravens or Ray Lewis. Their defense has always been tough, and Ray Ray is an incredible player and motivator for them ... but I just can't like them. All that said, I'll be rooting for Baltimore to stick it to Bill and Brady, but I'm still picking the Pats in a runaway.

If you have the stones, tell me why these picks are wrong. And why.

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

Well, I was 4-0 for last weekend's Wildcard Round (sorry, Kenny Merrill and other 'Skins fans). As far as the picks for the upcoming Divisional Round, I'm not as confident. Other than the Seattle-Washington game, last week's games appeared to be men v boys. Starting with the divisional round, it gets much tougher.

 

Here are my picks.

 

RAVENS @ BRONCOS

Baltimore has been struggling the past month or so and the energy generated by Ray Lewis' retirement announcement won't be a factor this week as the game is in Denver. Peyton struggles in sub-40 degree temps, but it won't be enough. Broncos win.
 

TEXANS @ PATRIOTS

Houston just hasn't looked like the same team since getting their butts handed to them by New England at a game late in the season. I don't see anything changing that trend (particularly how they barely beat the Ben-Gals at home last week). Patriots win it big.

 

 

PACKERS @ NINERS

This may be the game of the weekend. This is a match-up between two of the NFC's best and is a rematch of the Week 1 game in San Francisco when the Niners won handily. Much has changed since then, and I see the outcome changing, too. Packers win a close one on the road.

SEAHAWKS @ FALCONS

Atlanta is the NFC's No. 1 seed, but it is the team that nobody seems to have any confidence in. Add that to the fact that Seattle's strengths seem to be where the Falcons have weaknesses. I'm throwing all that aside and picking the Falcons. I think Ryan and Gonzalez get it done at home.

So that sets up my Conference Championship match-ups of Patriots at Broncos and Packers at Falcons for next Sunday. Let me know what you think. Are your picks any better?

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Playoffs start in about an hour, and here are your MTSS predictions for the weekend.

BENGALS @ TEXANS
Cincinnati had a good season and Houston was the No. 1 seed all season, until Week 17. I just don't see the Bengals winning at Houston. Texans win it.








COLTS @ RAVENS
What an incredible rookie season by Andrew Luck and the Colts, but their "luck" runs out this weekend as Baltimore rebounds from a few stinky games. Ravens squeak it out at home.

 












VIKINGS @ PACKERS
There's no question who the NFL's best running back is; that's Adrian Peterson. He'll have a good day against the Pack, but it won't be enough for the Vikes to win at Lambeau. Packers advance.








SEAHAWKS @ REDSKINS
Rookie versus rookie at quarterback. Robert Griffin III is still recovering from that knee sprain and Russell Wilson has the better running game and defense. Hawks win it on the road.

What do you think?

Thanks for reading.
Steve

Black Monday Update

Well, it’s midnight-thirty and I can’t sleep. I’ve had a full day (yesterday now actually) of chasing news about Andy Reid becoming the new coach of the Kansas City Chiefs … or not maybe. The insiders are expecting it to be finalized later today (Friday); we’ll see.

As I thought about that, it struck me that we should revisit my blog from a month ago about coaches on the hot seat and see how accurate I was. I listed 10 warming seats. Let’s take another look at each one and see how I did.

Norv Turner, Chargers – He’s gone along with GM A.J. Smith, as expected. 1 for 1 so far.

Andy Reid, Eagles – As mentioned above, he’s in line for the Chiefs job, so he obviously was fired by Philadelphia. 2 for 2.

Romeo Crennel, Chiefs – Winning two games all season will do that. It was so bad that KC Owner Clark Hunt apologized to the fans. Crennel out; GM Scott Pioli may not be far behind. 3 for 3.

Ron Rivera, Panthers – GM Marty Hurney was fired but the Panthers’ late season run has saved Rivera so far. He’s probably safe. My first miss.

Jason Garrett, Cowboys – Owner Jerry Jones is NOT HAPPY with the ‘boys 8-8 finish. There will be changes, but I think Garrett is safe for one more year. Now I’m 3 for 5.

Rex Ryan, Jets – GM Mike Tannebaum got the ax, but Rex is safe. I’d expect OC Tony Sporano to get the boot, too. Their offense was pathetic.

Chan Gailey, Bills – After three underachieving season, Gailey is done in Buffalo. I expect him to catch on as an OC somewhere. That’s now 4 for 7.

Pat Shurmur, Browns – The Browns were improved, but new owner Jimmy Haslam is cleaning house and wants his own guys. President Mike Holmgrem and GM Tom Heckert are gone, too. 5 for 8.

Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals – Going from 4-0 to 5-11 and having the worst QB situation in the entire league wasn’t good enough. Coach Whiz is out, but he’ll likely get another head job, maybe Buffalo. I’m now 6 for 9.

Mike Mularkey, Jaguars – He’s in place for now, but this may change. I expected Shad Khan to can him and bring in his own guy, and he still may do that. But it’s a miss for now. 6 for 10.

The one I missed … is Lovie Smith of the Bears. They won 10 games but didn’t make the playoffs because the Packers couldn’t beat the Vikings. That’s a tough one. He’ll land another gig, for sure.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Top 10 NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat

Well, we’ve come to that time in the NFL season. It’s Week 13, and the playoff picture is coming into focus. The teams in the hunt are clear. And the teams simply playing out the string are painfully evident.

Here’s a list of coaches likely to be out of a job soon. Some will be put out to pasture at the end of the season, some maybe sooner.

Norv Turner, Chargers – This one is past due. Norv has been turning great talent into mediocre records for years in San Diego. He and A.J. Smith are both gone.

Andy Reid, Eagles – Owner Jeffrey Lurie said before the season that a repeat of last year’s 8-8 record wasn’t good enough. I don’t see any way Philly makes it back to .500. But Andy won’t be out of work for long.

Romeo Crennel, Chiefs – There’s no two ways about it. Having one win through 12 weeks will get you fired. Question is, will GM Scott Pioli get to choose the new HC or will he also be out of work?

Ron Rivera, Panthers – GM Marty Hurney is already gone. Can his hand-picked coach Ron Rivera, only in his second season in Carolina, be far behind? He’s likely gone as a new GM will want his own guy.

Jason Garrett, Cowboys – I’m not sure on this one. Jerry says he loves him, but Jerry hates losing more than he loves anything.

Rex Ryan, Jets – This call will probably be made by Jets Owner Woody Johnson. New York loves Rex, but will his two consecutive AFC Championship Game appearance get him one more year to prove it. He’s probably coming back.

Chan Gailey, Bills – He’s a good offensive coordinator, but it is obvious that this train is only going in circles. Gailey is likely let go.

Pat Shurmur, Browns – The Browns have been playing tough, improved football the past few weeks. But new owner Jimmy Haslam may have plans to install his coach. I expect to see Shurmur follow Mike Holmgren out the door.

Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals – The Cards’ Superbowl appearance a couple season ago bought him some time and patience. This team seems to be headed in the wrong direction. It needs a good QB. And maybe a new coach.

Mike Mularkey, Jaguars – Nice guy. Bad head coach. The skiddish nature of Blaine Gabbert hasn’t helped. Doubt to see him back in Jax next season.

So who am I missing? Where do I have the order all messed up? Sound off; give me your list.

Thanks for reading.

Steve

 

Black Monday for Missouri’s Football Teams

It’s a sad, sad Monday following a colossally weak weekend for football in the State of Missouri. As a bonkers-crazy football fan, I was looking forward to this weekend’s home games with anticipation and visions of sweeping all three games. The sweep we saw is not the one I was envisioning.

Syracuse at Missouri

The Tigers were coming off a thrilling quadruple overtime victory, earning just their second SEC win and their first on the road at Tennessee. Syracuse beat a good Louisville team the week prior, but that was at home. They wouldn’t be able to do that on the road against a rejuvenated Mizzou squad, right? Wrong.

Unfortunately my first Mizzou game of the year was a disappointing loss as the Tigers played porous defense, unable to stop the Orange’s quick passing game. As a result, Mizzou (5-6) will not be going to a bowl game this year. Not exactly what the Black & Gold faithful had in mind for its first year in the SEC.

Jets at Rams

The New York Tebows came to town on Christian Family Day hoping to spoil the Rams hopes to continue ascending up the ranks of improving NFL teams. After managing to tie the mighty 49ers on the road last week, St. Louis had its sights on a big home win. Tebow had little effect on the game, but the Jets running game and defense did plenty. Other than the Rams’ opening touchdown drive, the offense was anemic and the defense couldn’t stop New York’s running game. Both teams had the same plan – run the ball, play tough D. Only one was able to execute. The Rams fell to 3-6-1 and any hopes of competing for a Wild Card spot were put to bed. 


Bengals at Chiefs 
Cincinnati, coming off a huge home win over the New York Football Giants, was hoping and easy path to its fifth win of the season in Kansas City. The Chiefs entered the game with only one win, but the team had played the Steelers tough in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football and hoped to ride that positive momentum double its season win total. Didn’t happen. I have Chiefs season tickets, and thankfully, I couldn’t attend the game. My son took some Mizzou buddies to their first ever Chiefs game … it was ugly. The only thing more embarrassing than the play on the field was how not-full the stands were. Needless to say, the Bengals stomped the Chefs (maybe they can cook better than they play football) and set them firmly into place as the lead dog for the first pick in next spring’s NFL Draft.

As always, thanks for reading. Join the discussion. That's what makes it fun.

Steve