Musings on the Pro Bowl, Super Bowl

It is always bittersweet for me to see the Super Bowl get big in the football window. Sweet because the biggest game of the year is only days away; bitter because that game marks the end of watching grown men smash each other for a few months … leaving only the NFL Combine, free agency and the Draft in April to look forward to. Ahh … the Super Bowl. How America loves ye.

But anyway, let’s move on to some random thoughts on the Pro Bowl and a preview/prediction for the Super Bowl.

Players Save the Pro Bowl

Commissioner Roger Goodell has done a lot of good for the NFL over the past few years. Many grouse about his heavy-handed suspension and fines, but I think overall the league is better for having him in the chair. Take the Pro Bowl for instance. Last year’s game was a disgrace; players barely tried. Roger threatened to eliminate the game. So what happened? It actually looked like a football game this year.

I typically root for the AFC, but generally don’t really care who wins the game. It’s one of the last two games for the season, so I will watch. The best part this year was watching the six Chiefs in the game. Pretty good (a record in fact) for a team with only two wins. It proves the talent is there. Hopefully the leadership is there now, too. This fan is already looking forward to next season with Andy Reid (Big Red) at the helm.

Super Bowl XLVII

RAVENS VS 49ERS

This game is also known as the HarBowl or Ray Lewis’ last dance or the battle of two unknown quarterbacks or the Revival of New Orleans. There are plenty of storylines to go around at this year’s NFL championship game, and most of us will be sick of hearing about most of them by kickoff on Sunday.

The one I like, and some of you may disagree, is the story of two brothers coaching against each other in the biggest game of their lives. Put yourself in their place. I want to win as bad as the next guy (OK, probably more) but knowing that your bro is going to be crushed at the very moment that you have one of the greatest moments of your life. That’s heavy. Mr. & Mrs. Harbaugh have to be torn. It’s the best of times, but it is also tough, I’m sure. Imagine being incredibly joyful for one son while consoling and heartbroken for the other. What an incredible situation God has placed in front of that family. They seem to be handling it with humility, grace and joy. Good for them.

On to the game … most of the official betting lines have the Niners favored by 3-4 points. By all accounts it should be a hard-hitting and close game. The teams (and coaches) mirror each other – tough defense, good running games, vertical passing, TEs heavily involved, strong special teams, emotional leaders across the board.

All that said, it’s going to come down to which defense can stop the opposing team’s biggest offensive threat. For the Ravens that is Flacco to Torrey Smith going deep. For the Niners, it’s Kaepernick and the read-option from the quarterback position. Atlanta poked holes in the San Francisco secondary, and I think Baltimore will, too. My prediction: Ravens 28, Niners 24. Good bye, Ray Lewis.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Predictions for the NFL's Final Four

The NFL's version of the Final Four is here with the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games coming up this Sunday. I love this time of the year as football titans beat each other up each in an attempt to get to the SuperBowl. But it's also bittersweet because it means the games are quickly coming to an end.

Some quick thoughts (and predictions) on the games.

NINERS @ FALCONS

It was nice to see Mike Smith, Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez finally get that elusive first playoff win last week against the Seahawks. Just barely. Despite a great home record over the past few years, I just don't think Atlanta has enough to overcome that tough 49er defense, and Kaepernick and Co. are clicking on offense, too. I'll be rooting for Tony G. and the birds, but my pick is for San Francisco to win it on the road.

RAVENS @ PATRIOTS

I call this the Hatred Bowl for me personally. Don't really like either of these teams at all. Belichick is a great coach, probably a football genius, but I just get tired of hearing about The Hoodie, Brady, The Patriot Way, etc. And I've never really been a fan of the Ravens or Ray Lewis. Their defense has always been tough, and Ray Ray is an incredible player and motivator for them ... but I just can't like them. All that said, I'll be rooting for Baltimore to stick it to Bill and Brady, but I'm still picking the Pats in a runaway.

If you have the stones, tell me why these picks are wrong. And why.

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

Well, I was 4-0 for last weekend's Wildcard Round (sorry, Kenny Merrill and other 'Skins fans). As far as the picks for the upcoming Divisional Round, I'm not as confident. Other than the Seattle-Washington game, last week's games appeared to be men v boys. Starting with the divisional round, it gets much tougher.

 

Here are my picks.

 

RAVENS @ BRONCOS

Baltimore has been struggling the past month or so and the energy generated by Ray Lewis' retirement announcement won't be a factor this week as the game is in Denver. Peyton struggles in sub-40 degree temps, but it won't be enough. Broncos win.
 

TEXANS @ PATRIOTS

Houston just hasn't looked like the same team since getting their butts handed to them by New England at a game late in the season. I don't see anything changing that trend (particularly how they barely beat the Ben-Gals at home last week). Patriots win it big.

 

 

PACKERS @ NINERS

This may be the game of the weekend. This is a match-up between two of the NFC's best and is a rematch of the Week 1 game in San Francisco when the Niners won handily. Much has changed since then, and I see the outcome changing, too. Packers win a close one on the road.

SEAHAWKS @ FALCONS

Atlanta is the NFC's No. 1 seed, but it is the team that nobody seems to have any confidence in. Add that to the fact that Seattle's strengths seem to be where the Falcons have weaknesses. I'm throwing all that aside and picking the Falcons. I think Ryan and Gonzalez get it done at home.

So that sets up my Conference Championship match-ups of Patriots at Broncos and Packers at Falcons for next Sunday. Let me know what you think. Are your picks any better?

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Playoffs start in about an hour, and here are your MTSS predictions for the weekend.

BENGALS @ TEXANS
Cincinnati had a good season and Houston was the No. 1 seed all season, until Week 17. I just don't see the Bengals winning at Houston. Texans win it.








COLTS @ RAVENS
What an incredible rookie season by Andrew Luck and the Colts, but their "luck" runs out this weekend as Baltimore rebounds from a few stinky games. Ravens squeak it out at home.

 












VIKINGS @ PACKERS
There's no question who the NFL's best running back is; that's Adrian Peterson. He'll have a good day against the Pack, but it won't be enough for the Vikes to win at Lambeau. Packers advance.








SEAHAWKS @ REDSKINS
Rookie versus rookie at quarterback. Robert Griffin III is still recovering from that knee sprain and Russell Wilson has the better running game and defense. Hawks win it on the road.

What do you think?

Thanks for reading.
Steve

NFL Power Rankings – Week 1

The NFL season finally kicks off on Wednesday night with the Cowboys taking on the Giants in New York. And then the rest of the league follows suit on Sunday and Monday with a full slate of games. Crazed, football-starved fans have been getting by on projections and analysis and fantasy drafts, but now the real thing begins.

Here’s an update to my pre-season rankings for Week 1.

1. Green Bay – Top to bottom, still the best talent.
2. New England – Brady and Gronk will be hard to stop.
3. NY Giants – Defending champs have to be near the top.
4. Baltimore – Always play tough defense. Can Flacco and the O deliver?
5. Pittsburgh – Big Ben has Haley’s new offense and Wallace finally.
6. San Francisco – Not sure they can repeat 13-3 with Alex Smith.
7. Houston – Texans lost key pieces, but play in a weak division.
8. New Orleans – Despite everything, they’re still dangerous.
9. Detroit – Lots of firepower and off-field issues.
10.  Atlanta – Good team still trying to prove it is great.
11.  Philadelphia – Vick says dynasty. Let’s see it on the field.
12.  Chicago – Cutler. Forte. Marshall. And a good D.
13.  Dallas – Sooner or later, they have to live up to the hype … right?
14.  Kansas City – The ACL trio returns. Solid D. It’s all on Cassel.
15.  Buffalo – Great offseason, but can they compete in AFC East?
16.  Denver – Everybody love Peyton, but the team needs more tools.
17.  Cincinnati – Great young core. Insanely tough division.
18. San Diego – Promise big every year. It’s do-or-die time for the bosses.
19. Carolina – Big dreams in PantherLand after Cam’s rookie year.
20.  NY Jets – Rex’s weight loss and the team’s loss of wins will mirror.
21.  Tennessee – Steady team. Big decision on the QB.
22.  Seattle – Pete believes. No one else is sure. Pick a QB, please.
23.  Washington – RGIII has the town by the tail. But can he win?
24.  Arizona – Solid by not spectacular anywhere. Iffy at QB.
25.  Tampa Bay – Lots of moves to improve the roster. And a new coach.
26.  St. Louis – Fisher is the new sheriff in town. Sam has to rebound.
27.  Oakland – Reggie has some work to do in the post-Al era.
28.  Miami – Philbin takes over. Tannehill at QB. Long season ahead.
29.  Jacksonville – MJD finally reported. Gabbert has looked much improved.
30.  Cleveland – New owner. New QB. New RB. Big hill to climb.
31.  Indianapolis – His name is Luck, and he’ll need it this season.
32.  Minnesota – AP is still recovering. Is Ponder the guy?

Welcome back, football. We’ve missed you terribly.

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

Previewing the Chiefs’ and Rams’ seasons

A few days ago in this space, I shared predictions for the winners in each division across the NFL. So you know generally what I think the Chiefs and Rams are going to do this season. But since many of you (as well as me) are big fans of one or both teams, I decided to dedicate an additional blog this week to break down some details for each team’s season.

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Finished 7-9 last season, last in AFC West

Key Additions: NT Dontari Poe (R), RB Peyton Hillis, RT Eric Winston, TE Kevin Boss, CB Stanford Routt, QB Brady Quinn, OC Brian Daboll

Recipe for Success: The Chiefs finished last in the AFC West last season with a record of 7-9, just one win away from repeating as division champions despite losing three key players – RB Jamaal Charles, S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki – to season-ending knee injuries. All three members of the ACL Crew are back and with other key additions at positions of need, there are many calling for Kansas City to win the much-improved but still mediocre division. The running game should be solid with Charles and Hillis, and the defense is expected to be in the upper half of the league; the key to the Chiefs return to the playoffs will be the play of QB Matt Cassel in a make-or-break season for him.

Schedule Breakdown: In addition home-and-home series within the AFC West, the division plays the NFC South and the AFC North as part of the normal NFL schedule rotation. The Chiefs host the Falcons, Ravens, Bengals, Panthers and Colts, and have to travel to Buffalo, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Cleveland for road games.

Prediction: I have been saying for weeks now that I’m trying my best to temper my optimism for the upcoming season. Key additions at several spots have solidified the roster. Based on the schedule and the fact that the Chiefs have one of the deepest and youngest rosters in the league, I’m predicting a record of 10-6 and an AFC West crown.

 

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Finished 2-14 last season, last in NFC West

Key Additions: DT Michael Brockers (R), CB Janoris Jenkins (R), CB Courtland Finnegan, RB Isaiah Pead, WR Brian Quick (R), WR Steve Smith, LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Head Coach Jeff Fisher

 Recipe for Success: The Rams will be more competitive in 2012 for one simple reason … Jeff Fisher. He is one of only a handful of NFL head coaches that have proven over time that he can take a less than stellar lineup and get it to perform its abilities. Plus Fisher and new General Manager Les Snead turned the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft into a number of building blocks the team needed to lay a foundation for the future. Steven Jackson will have a big year, and Sam Bradford will bounce back. Also look for LB James Laurinaitis, DE Chris Long and S Quintin Mikell to excel on defense.

Schedule Breakdown: In addition home-and-home series within the NFC West, the division plays the NFC North and the AFC East as part of the normal NFL schedule rotation. The Rams host the Redskins, Packers, Patriots (London), Jets and Vikings at the Ed (Jones Dome); and have to travel to Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Buffalo and Tampa Bay.

Prediction: The Rams showed signs of life in the pre-season, but then again, the team went undefeated in the pre-season last year. Fisher’s expertise and presence will equal at least two wins. The NFC West is improving but is still weak, and the Rams will take a step forward. I’m calling for a 6-10 season.

As always, I’d love to hear from you. How do you think our Missouri teams will do? Am I being to realistic, too pessimistic? Come on, sound off.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Predicting the 2012 NFL Playoff Teams

It’s that time of the year when all the so-called national experts and football pundits take their shot at predicting the field of NFL playoff teams for the upcoming season. It’s a pretty mixed bag, with most of the ”predictions sure to go wrong” as ESPN’s Mike & Mike have labeled it. That’s pretty much the case here.

So with all the know-it-alls giving it a shot here in the last few days of the pre-season, I thought I’d throw my hat into the ring. I spend a lot of brainpower thinking about it anyway, so I just as well share it with the sporting world and make a jerk out of myself like everybody else.  Here goes …

*Division winners

~Wildcard teams

AFC North – Baltimore*, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati

The Ravens finally ride their offense to the post-season as Flacco blossoms.

AFC South – Houston,* Tennessee, Jacksonville, Indianapolis

Texans are too talented to not take advantage of a weak division.

AFC East – New England*, Buffalo~, NY Jets, Miami

New England reloads on D finally. Buffalo takes a step forward.

AFC West – Kansas City,* Denver~, San Diego, Oakland

The Chiefs ACL crew returns with a vengeance. Peyton leads Broncos to a wildcard.

AFC playoff teams – Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, Houston, Kansas City, New England

NFC North – Green Bay*, Chicago~, Detroit, Minnesota

Packers repeat at division champs, but the Bears are much improved.

NFC South – Atlanta*, Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

The Falcons finally put it all together. The Saints are distracted. Carolina continues to climb.

NFC East – Philadelphia*, Dallas~, NY Giants, Washington

Can the Eagles play finally equal its talent? It all hinges on Vick’s health.

NFC West – San Francisco*, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis

Harbaugh and gang fall back to the pack slightly, but still manhandle a weak division.

NFC playoff teams – ­Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco

Super Bowl prediction: Baltimore v Chicago

The Ravens offense and defense put it all together in 2012, thanks to the arm of Flacco and Ray Rice’s all-around play. The D isn’t bad, either. Ray Lewis goes out on top.

As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Come on … give it a shot. Who do you think will be the surprise and potential flop teams this season?

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve