NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

Well, I was 4-0 for last weekend's Wildcard Round (sorry, Kenny Merrill and other 'Skins fans). As far as the picks for the upcoming Divisional Round, I'm not as confident. Other than the Seattle-Washington game, last week's games appeared to be men v boys. Starting with the divisional round, it gets much tougher.

 

Here are my picks.

 

RAVENS @ BRONCOS

Baltimore has been struggling the past month or so and the energy generated by Ray Lewis' retirement announcement won't be a factor this week as the game is in Denver. Peyton struggles in sub-40 degree temps, but it won't be enough. Broncos win.
 

TEXANS @ PATRIOTS

Houston just hasn't looked like the same team since getting their butts handed to them by New England at a game late in the season. I don't see anything changing that trend (particularly how they barely beat the Ben-Gals at home last week). Patriots win it big.

 

 

PACKERS @ NINERS

This may be the game of the weekend. This is a match-up between two of the NFC's best and is a rematch of the Week 1 game in San Francisco when the Niners won handily. Much has changed since then, and I see the outcome changing, too. Packers win a close one on the road.

SEAHAWKS @ FALCONS

Atlanta is the NFC's No. 1 seed, but it is the team that nobody seems to have any confidence in. Add that to the fact that Seattle's strengths seem to be where the Falcons have weaknesses. I'm throwing all that aside and picking the Falcons. I think Ryan and Gonzalez get it done at home.

So that sets up my Conference Championship match-ups of Patriots at Broncos and Packers at Falcons for next Sunday. Let me know what you think. Are your picks any better?

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Playoffs start in about an hour, and here are your MTSS predictions for the weekend.

BENGALS @ TEXANS
Cincinnati had a good season and Houston was the No. 1 seed all season, until Week 17. I just don't see the Bengals winning at Houston. Texans win it.








COLTS @ RAVENS
What an incredible rookie season by Andrew Luck and the Colts, but their "luck" runs out this weekend as Baltimore rebounds from a few stinky games. Ravens squeak it out at home.

 












VIKINGS @ PACKERS
There's no question who the NFL's best running back is; that's Adrian Peterson. He'll have a good day against the Pack, but it won't be enough for the Vikes to win at Lambeau. Packers advance.








SEAHAWKS @ REDSKINS
Rookie versus rookie at quarterback. Robert Griffin III is still recovering from that knee sprain and Russell Wilson has the better running game and defense. Hawks win it on the road.

What do you think?

Thanks for reading.
Steve

Previewing the Chiefs’ and Rams’ seasons

A few days ago in this space, I shared predictions for the winners in each division across the NFL. So you know generally what I think the Chiefs and Rams are going to do this season. But since many of you (as well as me) are big fans of one or both teams, I decided to dedicate an additional blog this week to break down some details for each team’s season.

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Finished 7-9 last season, last in AFC West

Key Additions: NT Dontari Poe (R), RB Peyton Hillis, RT Eric Winston, TE Kevin Boss, CB Stanford Routt, QB Brady Quinn, OC Brian Daboll

Recipe for Success: The Chiefs finished last in the AFC West last season with a record of 7-9, just one win away from repeating as division champions despite losing three key players – RB Jamaal Charles, S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki – to season-ending knee injuries. All three members of the ACL Crew are back and with other key additions at positions of need, there are many calling for Kansas City to win the much-improved but still mediocre division. The running game should be solid with Charles and Hillis, and the defense is expected to be in the upper half of the league; the key to the Chiefs return to the playoffs will be the play of QB Matt Cassel in a make-or-break season for him.

Schedule Breakdown: In addition home-and-home series within the AFC West, the division plays the NFC South and the AFC North as part of the normal NFL schedule rotation. The Chiefs host the Falcons, Ravens, Bengals, Panthers and Colts, and have to travel to Buffalo, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Cleveland for road games.

Prediction: I have been saying for weeks now that I’m trying my best to temper my optimism for the upcoming season. Key additions at several spots have solidified the roster. Based on the schedule and the fact that the Chiefs have one of the deepest and youngest rosters in the league, I’m predicting a record of 10-6 and an AFC West crown.

 

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Finished 2-14 last season, last in NFC West

Key Additions: DT Michael Brockers (R), CB Janoris Jenkins (R), CB Courtland Finnegan, RB Isaiah Pead, WR Brian Quick (R), WR Steve Smith, LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Head Coach Jeff Fisher

 Recipe for Success: The Rams will be more competitive in 2012 for one simple reason … Jeff Fisher. He is one of only a handful of NFL head coaches that have proven over time that he can take a less than stellar lineup and get it to perform its abilities. Plus Fisher and new General Manager Les Snead turned the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft into a number of building blocks the team needed to lay a foundation for the future. Steven Jackson will have a big year, and Sam Bradford will bounce back. Also look for LB James Laurinaitis, DE Chris Long and S Quintin Mikell to excel on defense.

Schedule Breakdown: In addition home-and-home series within the NFC West, the division plays the NFC North and the AFC East as part of the normal NFL schedule rotation. The Rams host the Redskins, Packers, Patriots (London), Jets and Vikings at the Ed (Jones Dome); and have to travel to Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Buffalo and Tampa Bay.

Prediction: The Rams showed signs of life in the pre-season, but then again, the team went undefeated in the pre-season last year. Fisher’s expertise and presence will equal at least two wins. The NFC West is improving but is still weak, and the Rams will take a step forward. I’m calling for a 6-10 season.

As always, I’d love to hear from you. How do you think our Missouri teams will do? Am I being to realistic, too pessimistic? Come on, sound off.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

Miller Mock Draft 1.0

Wow. Welcome back to me. It’s been a while since I’ve blogged, but with NFL pre-season activity starting to heat up with the scouting combine, the draft and OTAs, I’m getting the fever.

With the NFL Draft now less than two weeks away, every expert and his two brothers are putting together mock drafts. Well, I’m no expert but I love football an awful lot, so I decided to throw something together. Cannot wait to see how it all unfolds starting April 26.

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

There is no way Jim Irsay passes on the next great pocket passer. 

2. Washington Redskins (from Rams) – Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

RG3 could end up being more successful than Luck. Shanahan hopes so.

3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT USC

Protecting Christian Ponder has to be the top priority. Kalil has the bloodlines and the talent.

4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

Colt McCoy needs offensive weapons. Cleveland desperately needs running back help. TRich is the most complete RB prospect since Adrian Peterson.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

Ronde Barber can’t play corner forever. Claiborne is an elite talent. When need meets BPA (best player available), it’s a beautiful thing.

6. St. Louis Rams (from Redskins) – Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State

Every expert in the known world has Blackmon going to the Rams. It makes sense, but who knows what Fisher and Co. will do. Lots of needs to meet.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame

Blaine Gabbert looked terrible last season. He needs help. Floyd will be a significant upgrade at WR.

8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M

The kid is raw and inexperienced, but experts say his ceiling is high. Philbin and Sherman better hope so.

9. Carolina Panthers – Fletcher Cox, DL Mississippi State

Cox fits a team need on the D line, and he’s the best available.

10. Buffalo Bills – Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

Reiff is a solid lineman and will step into the starting lineup right away, probably at LT.

11. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College

KC comes into the draft with few gaping holes. Kuechly is a tackling machine, and will quickly be starting on the inside opposite Derrick Johnson.

12. Seattle Seahawks – David DeCastro, OG Stanford

DeCastro is ready to start right now, and Seattle is glad to see he’s still available. Matt Flynn says thank you.

13. Arizona Cardinals – Melvin Ingram, DE S. Carolina

They have needs at WR and OL but with the best prospects already taken, the Cards shift to D line concerns. Ingram is long and lean, and should make an impact in the pass rush game.

14. Dallas Cowboys – Mark Barron, S Alabama

Barron is a LB/Safety hybrid, and the Boys will plug him into situational defenses right away.

15. Philadelphia Eagles – Dontari Poe, NT Memphis

This kid impressed at the Scouting Combine, but his tape showed inconsistency against sub-par competition at Memphis. Needs time to develop.

16. New York Jets – Quinton Coples, DE N. Carolina

Rex loves the D line, and Coples has big talent. His potential to bust is higher than most due to his inconsistent motor.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Raiders) – Stephon Gilmore, CB S. Carolina

One of the team’s top needs is at corner, and Gilmore is rated as one of the best in this year’s class. Seems like a fit.

18. San Diego Chargers – Cordy Glenn, OT Georgia

The Chargers lost quite a bit this off-season, and I don’t see Gaither as a long-term fix at LT. This mammoth dude from Georgia is highly regarded.

19. Chicago Bears – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

The Bears still have need at WR and on the O line, but I think they’ll go with this versatile athletic corner. He’s an upgrade and will start.

20. Tennessee Titans – Dont’a Hightower, LB Alabama

Tennessee is getting older on defense, particularly in the linebacking corps. Hightower is a hybrid LB/Safety and will make an impact in the middle.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

Andy Dalton needs more weapons to complement A.J. Green. A running back could work here, but I think they’ll go WR here and get the RB later. Wright plays fast in pads.

22. Cleveland Browns (from Falcons) – Michael Brockers, DT LSU

23. Detroit Lions – Courtney Upshaw, LB Alabama

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford

25. Denver Broncos – Janoris Jenkins, CB N. Alabama

26. Houston Texans – Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech

27. New England Patriots (from Saints) – Nick Perry, DE USC

28. Green Bay Packers – Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse

29. Baltimore Ravens – Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin

30. San Francisco 49ers – Harrison Smith, S Notre Dame

31. New England Patriots – Andre Branch, DE Clemson

32. New York Giants – Mike Adams, OT Ohio State

NFL Week 8: Games to Watch

I'm headed to Michigan tomorrow with seven guys from church for a weekend getaway at Life Action Camp in Buchanan (http://www.lifeactioncamp.com/retreats-events/momentum/). I'm not going to have my usual time to break down this week's key games, so you're going to get an abbreviated version.

I had a terrible week last week, going 0-4 with my picks. That brings my overall record to 17-11. Yuck.

Here are this week's four games to watch ... 

REDSKINS (3-3) @ BILLS (4-2)

Buffalo 31, Washington 17

PATRIOTS (5-1) @ STEELERS (5-2) 

Pittsburgh 24, New England 23

COWBOYS (3-3) @ EAGLES (2-4)
Philadelphia 27, Dallas 24

LIONS (5-2) @ BRONCOS (2-4) 

Detroit 31, Denver 17

Missouri Round-up

The Missouri Tigers are in Lubbock to take on Texas Tech; probably another road loss. The Rams host the Saints, and will lose big. The Chiefs host the Chargers, with the winner taking over first place in the AFC West. I think they'll do it and bring their record to 4-3, which is unbelievable considering how they started the season.

Thanks for reading.

Steve

NFL Week 6: Games to Watch

We are five weeks into the 2011 NFL Regular Season and if there’s one thing for sure, this year is turning out to be the season of surprise – surprises positive and surprises negative. On the plus side, we have great unexpected success stories in Buffalo, Detroit, San Francisco and Washington. And on the down end, we have teams laying eggs like Indianapolis, Minnesota, Philadelphia and St. Louis.

 

Two months ago, who would have thought the 49ers at Lions game would one of the biggest ones on the Week 6 schedule. Well, it is. And the records for the teams in the Eagles-Skins game are backwards from what everyone expected. That’s why they play the games.

Last week I went 3-1 on these preview games; overall I'm 15-5.

Here are four of this week’s best games.

49ERS (4-1) @ LIONS (5-0)

These two teams are the talk of the NFL football world, going a combined 9-1 through five weeks of games. Detroit was somewhat expected; San Francisco was not. The 49ers were terrible last year, they have a rookie head coach and the lockout kept them from installing a new system this summer. None of it seems to have mattered. And the Lions are rolling, winning in every conceivable fashion. The edge goes to the Lions playing at home.

Detroit 31, San Francisco 24

BILLS (4-1) @ GIANTS (3-2)

This is a hard game to figure. Buffalo is one the real surprises of the season so far; the team’s only loss so far is a road loss to the Bengals. The Bills have beaten New England, Oakland and Philadelphia, and certainly look like a team that is for real. The Giants are, again this year, one of those tough teams that just seem to find a way to win. Their defense has been hit hard by injuries, but they find a way to put players on the field and gut out hard-fought victories. The G-Men do it again this week, but just barely.

New York 24, Buffalo 23

EAGLES (1-4) @ REDSKINS (3-1)

It’s hard to say which of these teams is a bigger surprise – Philly on the down side or Washington on the plus side. Everyone has heard all about the Eagles’ talent and how they were supposed to be winning. And everyone has grown accustomed to doubting the Redskins’ talent and Mike Shanahan’s coaching. Well, maybe Washington is finally putting it together. The team is leading the NFC East and hosts the reeling Eagles. They keep on surprising and the Eagles keep on falling.

Washington 27, Philadelphia 24

TEXANS (3-2) @ RAVENS (3-1)

At the beginning of the year, most folks probably looked at this match-up and just marked is as an easy win for the Ravens. And maybe it will be anyway. But when you look closer at this game, it gets more and more interesting. The Texans are balanced on offense, and Wade Phillips finally has the team playing some defense. The Ravens are a hard team to figure, going hot and cold from week to week. Flacco is still inconsistent, but Ray Rice is the offensive engine. He’ll deliver again.

Baltimore 23, Houston 21

Missouri Round-up

The Missouri Tigers celebrate the centennial of the Homecoming where homecomings all began. Mizzou welcomes the Iowa State Cyclones to town for the big party, and everybody remotely associated with the university hopes they don’t spoil it. The Tigers are 2-3 and already 0-2 in conference play; I don’t see how they can lose this one at home. The Chiefs are off on their BYE this weekend, and the Rams will probably wish they were by the time they leave Green Bay. I fully expect the Packers to destroy St. Louis’ undermanned Rams. Run for cover, fellas.

As always, thanks for reading.

Steve

NFL Week 3: Games to Watch

While Week 2 didn’t have a lot of games that appeared to be that great on the surface, there were a number of good games and some surprises. We expected the Chiefs to lose at Detroit, and sure enough, they got trounced. The Ravens were supposed to go to Tennessee and wipe the table with the Titans … and they lost. As expected, the Saints handled the Bears, the Packers beat the Panthers (barely) and Tom Brady killed it again as the Patriots beat the Chargers. And per the annual pattern, Mike Vick got hurt and the Eagles lost. It was all good stuff.

Here’s a quick look at a few of this weekend’s best games.

Texans (2-0) @ Saints (1-1)
The Texans have looked sharp so far, putting the beatdown on two bad teams in two weeks – Indianapolis and then at Miami. The test will be significantly tougher this week as Houston goes to New Orleans to take on the Saints, who drubbed the Bears pretty soundly last week. This will be the first of five tough games for Houston. They fail this first test, but not by much.
New Orleans 30, Houston 27


Patriots (2-0) @ Bills (2-0)

New England and its high-powered offense led by Tom Brady continue to roll up yards, touchdowns and victories. And the surprising Buffalo Bills are in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East. The Bills fought hard and beat the Raiders at home last week. How they perform this week in the face of their divisional big brother will speak volumes about how good they are. 
New England 27, Buffalo 20

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (1-1)
Green Bay travels to Chicago this Sunday for a classic black-and-blue divisional match-up between two good teams. This rivalry is one of the oldest in the NFL, and the games are almost always close. The Packers defense is softer than expected, giving up 400-yard passing games the past two weeks. On the Bears’ side, Jay Cutler has to stay upright; the O line has been porous.
Green Bay 24, Chicago 23

Redskins (2-0) @ Cowboys (1-1)
On the surface, this appears to be a battle of two teams headed in opposite directions. Dallas has looked rough and really should be 0-2. The Skins are 2-0 and seemingly on a roll, but they have beaten two weak teams: Carolina and Arizona. Romo is injured and Rex Grossman has the passing offense clicking. I still see the Cowboys winning at home on MNF. 
Dallas 27, Washington 21 

Missouri Roundup – The year is quickly going down the tubes for Missouri’s “professional” football teams. The Chiefs … well, they are just a mess. And the Rams could potentially be 2-0, but instead they are winless again, sitting at 0-2 for the fifth straight year. I see them both losing again this weekend. The Chiefs go to San Diego (geesh) and the Rams host the always-tough Ravens. Looks like 0-3 for both franchises. Maybe Mizzou can beat Oklahoma on Saturday … doubt that one, too.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve

NFL Week 2: Games to Watch

Week 1 was great. From record-breaking performances (see Brady, Tom; Newton, Cam) to down-to-the-wire games (Lions@Bucs, Panthers@Cardinals, Cowboys@Jets) to unexpected wins (Bills, Bengals, Jaguars), the first weekend of NFL football was well worth the wait. With lots more where that come from for us every weekend through January, I'm anxious to see what's still behind the curtain.

Here’s a look at a few of this weekend’s best games.

Bears (1-0) @ Saints (0-1) – The Bears looked good beating the Falcons in Atlanta last week; the Saints looked good in defeat at Green Bay but couldn’t slow down the potent Packer offense. The teams hook up this week in New Orleans as the Saints kick-off their home schedule. Brian Urlacher is back from three days of bereavement after the passing of his mother, but it won’t be enough as the Saints put it in high gear this week.

New Orleans 31, Chicago 24

Cardinals (1-0) @ Redskins (1-0) – Arizona travels to D.C. to take on the Redskins in this battle of surprising undefeated teams … at least so far. It’s just one game, but both of these teams will definitely take it. The Cardinals gave up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton in Week 1 so Rex Grossman may have another good day against a porous pass defense. Kevin Kolb will have a tougher time against the fly-to-the-ball Skins defense. Advantage: Redskins.

Washington 17, Arizona 16

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0) – This one may be the marquee match-up of the week. The Chargers are coming off a lackluster but resounding beatdown of the Vikings, holding Donovan McNabb to 39 passing yards. Pitiful. And Tom Brady and the Patriots put up 500+ passing yards on the Dolphins in a Monday night victory. Whichever defense plays better wins this game. Plus we’ll see if the Chargers’ special teams coverage has improved in a week. The Pats take it at home.

New England 31, San Diego 27

Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1) – Michael Vick returns to the Georgia Dome, a place he used to call “my house.” It’s now Matt Ryan’s domain. It will be interesting to see who is more popular with the crowd. Vick is beloved in Atlanta, but I’m sure Matty Ice will have the edge once the game starts. And the Falcons’ offensive staff no doubt will have studied what the Rams did to the middle of the Eagles’ defense in Week 1. Expect to see lots of Michael Turner pounding up the middle. In the battle of the birds, the Falcons take it.

Atlanta 24, Philadelphia 20

As for Missouri’s hometown teams, unfortunately, I have them both losing again this weekend. The Chiefs go to Detroit and face a hot, young Lions team, and the Rams head to New York to take on the football Giants on Monday Night Football. Sorry guys, but it’s going to be another rough weekend.

Enjoy the weekend, NFL fans. Until next time, thanks for reading.

Steve